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ACUS01 KWNS 190547

SWODY1

SPC AC 190545



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024



Valid 191200Z - 201200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS

OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US...



...SUMMARY...

Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts

of the Southeast later today.



...Southeast...



Strong upper trough is forecast to advance from the upper MS Valley

into ON/MI by the end of the period as a 500mb speed max translates

from southern MN into the northern OH Valley. This evolution will

necessitate substantial height falls downstream across southeastern

Canada, extending into the upper OH Valley late. Southern extent of

this forcing will only glance the middle Appalachians and lower

latitudes will remain free of significant large-scale forcing

through Saturday morning. As a result, boundary-layer heating will

prove instrumental for convective development. While weak frontal

convergence and topographic influences will also prove beneficial,

convection is not expected to appreciably develop/intensify until

surface readings approach convective temperatures. Latest model

guidance suggests much of the southern Appalachians into coastal SC

will warm rapidly today. Negligible inhibition will be noted across

this region by early afternoon and isolated-scattered convection is

expected to develop near the frontal zone, across higher elevations

of the Appalachians. This activity will propagate toward the

Piedmont before weakening with loss of daytime heating.



...TX...



Surface front has progressed into the Arklatex, arcing across

central TX into extreme northern Mexico, northwest of DRT. This

boundary will likely advance farther southwest into the higher

terrain of northern Mexico where it will stall along the northeast

slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental range. The primary corridor of

low-level convergence will be within upslope regions of the higher

terrain west of the international border. While the boundary layer

east of the Sierra Madre should remain a bit stable, convection will

develop  across the highest slopes then propagate southeast toward

the lower Rio Grande Valley. It's not entirely clear whether this

activity will maintain intensity as it spreads toward TX. At this

time will not introduce severe probabilities but this area may

warrant a MRGL risk in later outlooks if conditions become more

favorable.



Farther north during the overnight hours, weak low-level warm

advection will focus along a corridor from northwest TX into the Red

River region. Elevated convection is expected to develop across this

region as 850mb parcels are expected to be favorably moist/buoyant

for thunderstorm development. Given the lack of meaningful

large-scale forcing, there is some concern that updrafts may not be

as robust as otherwise possible. While some hail could be generated

with this activity, overall severe threat appears a bit too low to

warrant severe probabilities at this time.



..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/19/2024



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