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ACUS02 KWNS 190743

SWODY2

SPC AC 190741



Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0241 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024



Valid 201200Z - 211200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS...



CORRECTED FOR REVERSED THUNDER LINES



...SUMMARY...

Marginally severe storms capable of strong wind gusts and hail will

be possible on Saturday across parts of south-central and southeast

Texas.



...South-central and Southeast Texas...

A shortwave trough will move toward the southern Plains on Saturday,

as zonal flow remains in place across much of the Gulf Coast region.

At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast to be located

across south-central and southeast Texas. South of this boundary, a

moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the 60s F.

Surface heating will result in destabilization across this airmass

during the day. As instability peaks during the afternoon, and as

low-level convergence increases along and near the front, scattered

thunderstorm development is expected. ECMWF forecast soundings in

south-central Texas during the late afternoon suggest that MLCAPE

will peak near 1200 J/kg, and that 0-6 km shear will be around 40

knots. This would be favorable for an isolated severe threat. The

stronger storms could be associated with isolated damaging wind

gusts and hail. However, limited large-scale ascent and poor lapse

rates will likely keep any severe threat marginal.



..Broyles.. 04/19/2024



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