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ACUS48 KWNS 190850

SWOD48

SPC AC 190849



Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0349 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024



Valid 221200Z - 271200Z



...DISCUSSION...

...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5...

Surface high pressure is forecast to move across the Southeast on

Monday and Tuesday. As a result, a dry and cool airmass is expected

to limit severe potential across the continental U.S.



...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8...

Low-level moisture is forecast to return northward into the Southern

Plains and Ark-La-Tex from Wednesday into Wednesday night, as a

low-level jet develops across the Great Plains. Within the warm

advection regime, isolated strong thunderstorm development could

take place. A hail threat would be possible in parts of the southern

and central Plains, as the low-level jet strengthens and instability

increases Wednesday night.



On Thursday and Friday, the medium-range models develop a

large-scale upper-level trough over the southwestern U.S. Some

solutions eject a lead shortwave across the central U.S. on Thursday

and Thursday night. Ahead of this feature, significant moisture

return is forecast, and it appears that moderate instability will be

in place across much of the southern and central Plains. Strong to

severe thunderstorms could develop to the east of a dryline across

parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas.



Some model solutions suggest that a second shortwave trough will

move across the southern Plains on Friday. This would continue a

potential for severe storms Friday into Friday night from the

southern Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. In spite of a

potential for severe storms late in the Day 4 to 8 period,

predictability remains low. This is especially true on Friday due a

relatively large spread among the model solutions.



..Broyles.. 04/19/2024