####018002507####
ACUS48 KWNS 200900

SWOD48

SPC AC 200859



Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0359 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024



Valid 231200Z - 281200Z



...DISCUSSION...

...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5...

An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward from the

Intermountain West on Tuesday into the Rockies on Wednesday. At the

surface, a large high pressure area is forecast to move across the

southeastern U.S. In the wake of the high, moisture return will

likely take place across the southern and central Plains on

Wednesday and Wednesday night. It appears that elevated

thunderstorms may develop on the northern edge of the moist sector

as the low-level jet strengthens. These storms could be associated

with a severe threat, having a potential for large hail and damaging

wind gusts. However, predictability remains low concerning any

specific scenario, mainly due to the presence of the upper-level

ridge.



...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8...

By Thursday, the models have a moist airmass in place across most of

the southern and central Plains. The upper-level ridge is forecast

to move eastward into the Mississippi Valley, as an upper-level

trough moves into the Desert Southwest. As this feature approaches

the central U.S., isolated to scattered strong to severe

thunderstorms will be possible to the east of a dryline from

northwest Texas northward into west-central Kansas. The primary

threats would be isolated large hail and wind damage, although an

isolated tornado threat would also be possible.



On Friday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move across the

central Plains. Model forecasts suggest that a moist and unstable

airmass will be in place from the southern and central Plains

extending into the Upper Midwest. This would be the favored area for

scattered severe storms Friday afternoon and evening. On Saturday,

some model solutions suggest a large-scale upper-level trough will

develop over the southwestern U.S., with southwest mid-level flow

remaining in place over much of the south-central U.S. Although

spread among the solutions is somewhat large by Saturday, the models

suggest a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across parts

of the south-central states. Storms that develop within this airmass

would have potential to be severe. However, predictability at this

range remains too low to outlook a threat area.



..Broyles.. 04/20/2024