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ACUS01 KWNS 210107

SWODY1

SPC AC 210106



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0806 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024



Valid 210100Z - 211200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF

SOUTH TEXAS...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated strong to severe storms capable of strong gusts and hail

will be possible mainly the remainder of this evening into tonight

across portions of central and south Texas.



...Central/Southern TX...



Severe probabilities have been trimmed across parts of central TX

based on current radar trends and evolution of the rain-cooled

airmass. However, a small Slight (level 2 of 5) risk has been added

across parts of south TX near/just ahead of the surface front draped

west to east from Webb County toward the coast. Convergence along

this boundary is noted and several cells have begun to develop over

the past 30-60 minutes. Modified 00z DRT RAOB, along with the 00z

CRP RAOB and 23z RAP forecast soundings show an environment

favorable for large hail and strong thunderstorm gusts. An airmass

characterized by large instability through a deep layer, elongated

hodographs, and sufficient effective shear, should support at couple

of storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. Furthermore,

cells moving east/southeast across northeast Mexico may

approach/cross the Rio Grande over the next few hours, also posing

some severe risk.



...Mississippi to the Carolinas...



A couple of strong storms may persist another few hours (through

midnight local time) from southern MS to GA. Locally gusty winds and

small hail may occur with the strongest cells. Across the Carolinas,

overall severe potential should come to an end once a severe storm

near the SC/NC coastal border vicinity moves offshore. Given the

diminishing threat, the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been

removed with the 01z update.



..Leitman.. 04/21/2024



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