####018001328####
ACUS03 KWNS 210718

SWODY3

SPC AC 210716



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0216 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024



Valid 231200Z - 241200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...



...SUMMARY...

Marginally severe thunderstorms, capable of producing strong wind

gusts and hail, will be possible on Tuesday in parts of the southern

Plains.



...Southern Plains...

An upper-level ridge is forecast to gradually build into the Rockies

on Tuesday. At the surface, a slow-moving front should be located

from northwest Texas extending east-northeastward across Oklahoma

into the Ozarks. Surface dewpoints near the front are forecast to be

near 60 F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, a pocket of

instability is forecast to develop across northwest Texas and

southwestern Oklahoma. Within this pocket of instability, forecast

soundings for 00Z/Wednesday have MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg, 40 knots of

effective shear and 700-500 mb lapse rates above 8 C/km. This would

support an isolated severe threat. However, a shallow capping

inversion is evident around 750 mb. This will likely keep convective

initiation very isolated, making any severe threat conditional.



..Broyles.. 04/21/2024



$$