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ACUS48 KWNS 220856

SWOD48

SPC AC 220855



Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0355 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024



Valid 251200Z - 301200Z



...DISCUSSION...

...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5...

An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward away from the

Great Plains on Thursday, as an upper-level trough moves through the

Desert Southwest. Mid-level flow is forecast to become southwesterly

over the southern and central Plains on Thursday, as a dryline sets

up during the day. East of the dryline, moderate instability appears

likely by afternoon from parts of west Texas northward into western

Oklahoma and central Kansas. Isolated thunderstorm development will

be possible in some areas to the east of the dryline. Moderate

deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the southern and central

Plains, suggesting a few supercells with large hail and wind damage

may occur. An isolated tornado threat could also develop.



On Friday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Great

Plains, with a mid-level jet moving over a moist and unstable

airmass. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the

afternoon from north-central/northeast Texas northward into the

lower to mid Missouri Valley. The trough is forecast to be

negatively tilted, and be associated with strong large-scale ascent

and moderate deep-layer shear. This will likely support scattered

strong to severe storms, with the greatest severe threat across

northeast Texas, eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and western

Missouri. Large hail, wind damage and a few tornadoes will be

possible during the afternoon and evening.



...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8...

On Saturday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the

southern and central Rockies. Ahead of this feature, moisture

advection is expected to replenish a moist airmass in the southern 

and central Plains. As surface temperatures warm during the day,

thunderstorms are forecast to develop from parts of north Texas

northward into Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Moderate deep-layer

shear over an unstable airmass should support scattered strong to

severe storms. MCS development could occur across parts of the warm

sector Saturday evening.



From Sunday into Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move

from the Great Plains to the Mississippi Valley. A severe threat

could develop Sunday afternoon ahead of the system along and near a

moist axis from the Ark-La-Tex north-northeastward into the Ozarks.

The severe threat, associated with the trough, would be further east

on Monday. At this time, there is considerable spread among model

solutions, concerning the timing of the trough on Sunday and Monday.

A slower solution, which some models suggest could happen, would

result in a large spatial displacement from current model forecasts.

For this reason, predictability remains too low to add a severe

threat area on either day.



..Broyles.. 04/22/2024