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ACUS01 KWNS 221222

SWODY1

SPC AC 221220



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0720 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024



Valid 221300Z - 231200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON

ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FL COAST...



...SUMMARY...

Strong to locally severe thunderstorms, capable of marginally severe

wind gusts and hail, will be possible near the southeast Florida

coast this afternoon.



...Southeast FL coast this afternoon...

In conjunction with a midlevel shortwave trough moving over the

Southeast, a surface cold front will progress southward from central

to south FL through the day.  Surface dewpoints near 70 F this

morning will likely decrease with surface heating/mixing, though

there is some uncertainty regarding the influence of morning

clouds/convection.  Assuming a few cloud breaks by midday/early

afternoon, the more probable area for thunderstorm development this

afternoon will be near the southeast FL coast.  This area will be

along the southern fringe of the stronger mid-upper westerlies,

where deep-layer shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for

semi-organized storms with a low-end wind/hail threat for a few

hours this afternoon.



...Elsewhere...

A midlevel trough will dig southeastward over the northern Plains

and upper Great Lakes by Tuesday morning, as an associated surface

cold front moves southeastward into the upper MS Valley and central

Plains.  Isolated high-based thunderstorms may form late this

afternoon in the zone of deepest mixing along the front from

northeast CO into northwest KS, where gusty winds will be possible. 

Elevated convection rooted near 700 mb is the more probable scenario

tonight atop the frontal surface from southern NE/northern KS into

southern IA/northern MO.  Otherwise, weak/low-topped convection with

isolated lightning flashes will also be possible this

afternoon/evening within the midlevel cold pool over northern ND/MN.

Strong wind gusts will be possible given deep mixing and strong

synoptic flow over ND, but severe thunderstorms are unlikely.



..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/22/2024



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