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ACUS01 KWNS 221939

SWODY1

SPC AC 221938



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0238 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024



Valid 222000Z - 231200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR

SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...



...SUMMARY...

Strong to locally severe thunderstorms, capable of marginally severe

wind gusts and hail, remain possible near the southeast Florida

coast this afternoon.



No changes were made to the ongoing outlook.



A low threat of severe storms remains this afternoon for the coastal

counties of far southeastern FL. Storms are ongoing near a weak

boundary, with 1500+ J/kg MUCAPE present. Locally strong gusts or

brief/marginal hail may occur over the next few hours, prior to

storms moving offshore.



..Jewell.. 04/22/2024



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024/



...South FL...

Visible satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus field over the

Everglades and South FL ahead of a southward-progressing cold front

over the northern part of the Everglades.  A mid-level shortwave

trough located over the Carolinas/northeast Gulf of Mexico

--embedded within a larger-scale eastern North America trough-- will

continue east into the western Atlantic through the evening. 

Continued warming of a moist airmass across south FL will yield

moderate destabilization.  Isolated thunderstorms are forecast to

develop in the vicinity of the front through the mid afternoon. 

Long, straight hodographs combined with more than adequate CAPE will

potentially yield a couple of organized storms.  An isolated risk

for large hail and/or localized damaging gust will be the primary

hazards with the most intense storms.  This activity will push east

of the coast by early evening.  



Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across a large part of

the contiguous United States.



$$