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ACUS02 KWNS 240601

SWODY2

SPC AC 240600



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0100 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024



Valid 251200Z - 261200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE

EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OK INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL

KS...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late Thursday

afternoon into Thursday night across parts of the central and

southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a

couple strong tornadoes will all be possible.



...Synopsis...

A shortwave trough initially over the Southwest is still forecast to

take on an increasingly negative tilt as it moves eastward towards

the central/southern Plains by Thursday night into Friday morning.

In response, a deepening surface low will move from the central High

Plains toward northwest KS/southwest NE by late Thursday night into

Friday morning. A surface boundary will move northward as a warm

front across the central Plains through the day, though convective

outflow may limit its progress across parts of central/western KS.

Along/south of the warm front, relatively rich low-level moisture

will stream northward to the east of a dryline that will become

established from the eastern TX Panhandle into western KS and

eastern CO. 



...Southern/central Great Plains...

Potential for a few intense supercells remains evident across

western KS into western OK and the OK/TX Panhandles, with a threat

for very large hail, severe wind gusts, and possibly a couple of

strong tornadoes. Isolated supercells will also be possible into

parts of northwest KS, southwest NE, and northeast CO. Some

overnight severe potential also remains evident farther east into

central KS/OK and north TX. 



Substantial convection may be ongoing at the start of the period

across parts of eastern KS/OK. While this convection will likely

remain elevated, some threat for hail and isolated damaging gusts

cannot be ruled out through much of the day.This convection may

persist through much of the day, driven by persistent low-level warm

advection to the cool side of the effective outflow. Should this

occur, outflow may tend to spread westward through the day,

providing a limit to the eastward extent of higher-end severe

potential. 



Otherwise, a favorable conditional supercell environment is still

expected to develop along/ahead of the dryline from western KS/OK

into the OK/TX Panhandles, as low-level and deep-layer shear

increase across a moderately to strongly unstable environment. While

stronger ascent may not arrive across a broader portion of the

central/southern Great Plains until evening, isolated supercell

development will be possible by late afternoon. 



Steep midlevel lapse rates will support an initial threat of very

large hail. The tornado threat will also increase with any supercell

that persists into the evening, with low-level shear/SRH expected to

increase with time and eastward extent, and any longer-lived

supercells could pose a strong tornado threat. Uncertainty remains

regarding the number of supercells that develop, and the longevity

of any such cells into the evening given that outflow may begin

impinging on the warm sector from the east.  



Another round of potentially severe storms may develop late Thursday

night into Friday morning along the Pacific front/dryline. Moderate

instability and strong deep-layer shear will support organized

convection with this activity, which may tend to become linear with

time. The overnight storms could pose some threat for all severe

hazards, though the magnitude of the threat remains uncertain due to

lingering near-surface stability and the unfavorable time of day. 



...Parts of the central/northern High Plains...

Near/north of the deepening surface, relatively moist low-level

southeasterly flow beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support

increasing instability through the day. Favorable deep-layer shear

will support isolated supercell potential by mid/late afternoon

across northeast CO and adjacent portions of southwest NE and

northwest KS. Very large hail (potentially 2-2.5 inches in diameter)

will likely be the primary threat, though cells in the vicinity of

the effective warm front will also be capable of producing a tornado

or two. 



Farther north, moderate buoyancy will support scattered diurnal

thunderstorm development into the Black Hills vicinity. Deep-layer

shear will be weaker in this area, but may still be sufficient for

modestly organized storms capable of large hail.



..Dean.. 04/24/2024



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