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ACUS03 KWNS 240731

SWODY3

SPC AC 240730



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0230 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024



Valid 261200Z - 271200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND

OZARKS...



...SUMMARY...

An active severe weather day appears possible on Friday from parts

of Nebraska and Iowa southward into parts of the southern Great

Plains and Ozarks. A few tornadoes, large to very large hail, and

damaging winds will all be possible.



...Synopsis...

A negatively tilted mid/upper-level shortwave trough and associated

occluding surface low are forecast to move northeastward toward the

upper Great Lakes from Friday into Friday night. A trailing Pacific

front/dryline will move eastward through the day across the

central/southern Plains, before retreating westward Friday night. A

warm front will move northward in advance of the surface low across

MO into parts of IA, though its progress may be slowed by convective

outflow resulting from extensive D2/Thursday convection. 



...Central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley...

A relatively active severe weather day appears possible from eastern

portions of the Great Plains into parts of the mid MS Valley and

Ozarks on Friday. However, uncertainty remains regarding the impact

of extensive antecedent convection on the quality of the warm

sector. 



Thunderstorms that develop late on D2/Thursday may be ongoing during

the morning from eastern KS into central/eastern OK and north TX. At

least some severe threat may persist through the morning with this

convection, as it spreads into parts of MO/AR. With favorable

deep-layer shear across the warm sector, some intensification of

early convection will be possible during the afternoon, though there

may be a tendency for storms to move eastward out of the primary

instability axis. The strongest storms across eastern portions of

the warm sector could pose at least some threat for all severe

hazards, though magnitude of the threat remains uncertain. 



With the dryline not expected to make a strong eastward push, some

redevelopment cannot be ruled out later in the day. Depending on

heating and destabilization trends, supercell development will be

possible from eastern NE/western IA southward into the ArkLaTex

region. Large hail (potentially in excess of 2 inches in diameter)

and could accompany any supercell development in this area, given

the persistence of rich low-level moisture beneath steep midlevel

lapse rates. Persistent moderate to strong low-level flow/shear will

also support tornado potential, especially if supercells can be

sustained near the ejecting shortwave and surface low across

northern portions of the risk area. 



Southwestward extent of the severe threat during the

afternoon/evening remains uncertain. Development cannot be entirely

ruled out from central OK into north/central TX along the nearly

stalled dryline, though coverage would likely remain very isolated

in the wake of the departing shortwave trough.



..Dean.. 04/24/2024



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