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ACUS01 KWNS 241246

SWODY1

SPC AC 241245



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0745 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024



Valid 241300Z - 251200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING

ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible this evening

across west central Texas.



...West central TX this evening...

A midlevel shortwave trough off the southern CA coast will move

inland over southern AZ by the end of the period.  Downstream,

shortwave ridging will persist over the Plains, though some increase

in westerly flow over the Rockies will contribute to lee troughing

across eastern CO/NM.  The lee trough will maintain southerly

low-level flow and a gradual increase in low-level moisture to the

south of a warm front that will move slowly northward across OK and

the TX Panhandle.  The moistening (boundary-layer dewpoints of 64-70

F and 100 mb mean mixing ratios of 12-14 g/kg) will occur beneath a

warm elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km,

which will drive large buoyancy (MLCAPE > 2000 J/kg) within a capped

warm sector.



The potential exception to this is along the developing dryline

across west central TX where surface heating/mixing could be deep

enough to remove convective inhibition, and isolated thunderstorm

development will be possible by this afternoon/evening.  Confidence

in storm development is modest, but the environment with large

buoyancy, steep lapse rates and effective bulk shear greater than 40

kt will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing isolated

very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe outflow

gusts of 60-70 mph.  There will be an increase in low-level shear

this evening and low-level moisture will be greater compared to

yesterday, so an isolated tornado will also be possible in a narrow

time window this evening before inhibition increases and storms

weaken.



...OK into KS through tonight...

Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing over western OK in a zone of

low-midlevel warm advection and weak buoyancy likely rooted near 700

mb.  Some of this convection could persist today while spreading

eastward, with a low-end hail threat.  Additional elevated storms

are expected to form overnight from northeast OK into KS with

strengthening warm advection and increasing low-level moisture.  A

couple of storms could produce isolated large hail the last few

hours of the forecast period.



..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/24/2024



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