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ACUS02 KWNS 211722

SWODY2

SPC AC 211721



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1221 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024



Valid 221200Z - 231200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE

CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTH FLORIDA...



...SUMMARY...

One or two clusters of strong thunderstorms may impact portions of

southern Florida and the Keys Friday into Friday evening,

accompanied by at least some risk for damaging winds and a brief

tornado. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development may

impact central and northeastern Gulf coastal areas into Friday

night.



...Southeast States...



An upper trough within southern stream flow located over eastern

OK/TX Friday morning will migrate east across the Southeast U.S.

through early Saturday morning. Stronger deep-layer flow associated

with the subtropical jet will mostly remain over the Gulf, though

some stronger flow will impinge on the central Gulf Coast while also

overspreading FL. 30-40 kt west/southwesterly flow within the warm

conveyor ahead of the trough will support ongoing clusters of storms

early in the period and through much of the evening across portions

of the Southeast. At the surface, a weak low will shift east near

the central Gulf Coast through the day before lifting northeast into

GA overnight. This will maintain a cool/dry airmass inland from the

coast, especially across MS/AL, with some modest moisture return

ahead of the low across the FL Peninsula into GA. 



While CAMs guidance varies in location and timing of convective

features, the overall consensus is that one cluster of storms over

the western Gulf will likely affect south FL and the Keys during the

morning into early afternoon. Meanwhile another cluster will likely

traverse east in the vicinity of the central Gulf Coast during the

morning and afternoon. Another round of thunderstorms associated

with an eastward-advancing cold front may then move across northern

FL/southern GA after 06z while continued convection associated with

warm advection impacts the coastal Carolinas during the nighttime

hours.



How much destabilization can occur ahead of any of the

aforementioned clusters of convection remains uncertain given

limited diurnal heating, and generally modest mid and low-level

lapse rates. Where/if stronger destabilization occurs, vertical

shear characterized by 0-6 km effective shear magnitudes near 40 kt

will support organized cells. Strong to locally damaging gusts will

be the main hazard with this activity, though small hail or a brief

spin-up also may be possible very near the coast.



..Leitman.. 03/21/2024



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