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ACUS03 KWNS 250732

SWODY3

SPC AC 250730



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024



Valid 271200Z - 281200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF

CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO...FAR SOUTHEAST NE...MUCH OF

OK...AND PART OF NORTH TX...



...SUMMARY...

Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected

Saturday into Saturday night. The greatest threat is currently

anticipated across parts of the central and southern Plains, where

very large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes will be

possible. A larger area of potential threat will extend from

south-central Texas north-northeastward into the Great Lakes.



...Synopsis...

A shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to

gradually weaken and move northeastward across the upper Great Lakes

region on Saturday. Meanwhile, a deep mid/upper-level trough will

move eastward from the Southwest, resulting in a deepening cyclone

across southwest KS. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream

northward across the warm sector of this cyclone, with favorable

moisture also extending northeast into the Great Lakes region.



...Parts of the central/southern Plains...

While details remain uncertain, scattered significantly severe

thunderstorms may develop across parts of the central/southern

Plains Saturday into Saturday night, with all severe hazards

(including very large hail and a few strong tornadoes) possible. 



As the approaching upper-level trough begins to impinge upon the

moist warm sector of the deepening cyclone, strengthening low-level

and deep-layer shear will overspread moderate to locally strong

instability from KS into parts of TX/OK. There is some potential for

early convection to develop and spread from northwest TX into OK.

This early convection would likely pose some severe threat if it

materializes, though it would complicate the scenario for later in

the day. 



If the warm sector stays relatively undisturbed, then scattered

supercell development is expected along the dryline by late

afternoon, along with some potential for warm-sector development

farther east, and also near a northward moving warm front across

northeast KS/northwest MO into southeast NE/southwest IA. Very large

hail will be the most likely initial threat, though the tornado

threat will increase with time, as the low-level jet strengthens

through the day. Any supercells that persist into late

afternoon/early evening across the warm sector could pose an

increasing strong tornado threat with time. Some areas may see more

than one round of severe storms, with multiple clusters expected to

develop through the evening, with some threat for all severe hazards

potentially lasting into late evening.



...Great Lakes vicinity...

Coverage of storms into parts of the Great Lakes remains somewhat

uncertain on Saturday in the wake of the departing shortwave trough,

but a conditionally favorable storm environment will likely develop

into the afternoon/evening into parts of WI/IL and MI, as relatively

rich low-level moisture remains in place and deep-layer shear

remains rather strong. Some threat for all severe hazards could

evolve across the region, along/ahead of a cold front, with some

threat potentially lasting into the evening as convection spreads

northeast from the Plains.



..Dean.. 04/25/2024



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