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ACUS01 KWNS 221602

SWODY1

SPC AC 221600



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1100 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024



Valid 221630Z - 231200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE

FLORIDA KEYS INTO A SMALL PART OF SOUTHERN MAINLAND FLORIDA...



...SUMMARY...

Severe thunderstorm gusts, isolated large hail and a tornado or two

are possible today and tonight over parts of the Florida Keys into a

small part of southern mainland Florida.



...South FL and the Keys...

Few changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.  Multiple MCSs

continue to be noted over the Gulf of Mexico today, tracking slowly

eastward.  The first system is affecting far south FL, with

widespread precipitation and a few embedded thunderstorms.  Dense

cloud cover is limiting destabilization, suggesting that near-term

severe threat is rather low.  Nevertheless, an isolated cell cable

of gusty winds or a brief spin-up is possible through mid-afternoon.





A second MCS is seen on IR imagery over the central Gulf and will

approach south FL and the Keys after dark.  It is unclear whether

destabilization will occur in the wake of the first system, but CAM

guidance suggests a somewhat greater potential for organized

convection and perhaps a few supercells in the 03-06z period. 

Forecast soundings indicate relatively strong low-level and deep

layer shear during this time, promoting a risk of damaging winds or

perhaps a tornado or two.  This risk is conditional on the evolution

of the first MCS and whether the air mass can recover.



...FL Panhandle...

Another cluster of thunderstorms is occurring late this morning over

southern AL and southeast LA.  This activity will track eastward

across the FL Panhandle through the day.  Considerable cloud cover

and limited low-level moisture (dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower

60s) will limit instability.  However, most CAM solutions indicate a

few stronger updrafts may develop later this afternoon.  Relatively

cool temperatures aloft and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates

would suggest some risk of hail or gusty winds in any robust cells

that can form.



..Hart/Thornton.. 03/22/2024



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