####018001528#### ACUS01 KWNS 230036 SWODY1 SPC AC 230034 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are expected primarily this evening the Florida Keys and a part of the southern mainland of Florida. ...South FL, including the FL Keys... Well-defined upper low is progressing east-southeast across the central Gulf States, in line with earlier model guidance. This feature is forecast to shift into southeast AL by the end of the period. At lower latitudes, a well-organized MCS has evolved ahead of a low-latitude short-wave trough over the extreme southeast Gulf of Mexico. Latest radar data exhibits a strong/severe squall line extends from roughly 30 miles southwest of Marco Island to about 40 miles west of Key West. Additionally, isolated supercells have evolved ahead of the primary squall line, especially over the FL Straits and just off the southeast FL Atlantic Coast. Ample shear/buoyancy will continue to support organized, rotating updrafts capable of generating tornadoes. The primary risk with the squall line should be damaging winds, though isolated tornadoes may also be embedded along the line. This activity will progress across south Florida by late this evening. ..Darrow.. 03/23/2024 $$