####018003834####
ACUS01 KWNS 260112

SWODY1

SPC AC 260111



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0811 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024



Valid 260100Z - 261200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF

NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...



...SUMMARY...

Large hail, a couple tornadoes, and wind damage will be possible

this evening across parts of northwestern, north-central and central

Kansas this evening. Very large hail over 2 inches in diameter,

damaging winds to 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible this

evening and tonight from northwest Texas into central Oklahoma.



...Central Plains...

An upper-level low, evident on water-vapor imagery, is currently

near the Four Corners. This exit region of an associated 60 to 70

knot mid-level jet is moving through western Kansas. At the surface,

a 991 mb low is located across eastern Colorado. A dryline extends

southward from the low near the Kansas-Colorado state line. A slow

moving front is located across west-central and south-central

Kansas. A cluster of severe thunderstorms is located near and to the

north of the front across northwest Kansas. These storms will

continue to move northeastward across the remainder of northwestern

Kansas and into southern Nebraska this evening. Some storms are

expected to develop across west-central Kansas later this evening,

moving into parts of central and northern Kansas overnight.



RAP forecast soundings early this evening across northwest and

north-central Kansas have MUCAPE in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range,

effective shear near 50 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8.5

to 9.0 C/km range. This environment will be very favorable for

supercells with large hail. The strongest of supercells could

produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. The greatest

tornado threat is expected to be across west-central Kansas, where

forecast soundings have looped hodographs with 0-3 km storm-relative

helicity in the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range. If a discrete supercell can

re-develop across northwest or north-central Kansas later this

evening, then a tornado or two would be possible. A wind-damage

threat is also expected from west-central Kansas northeastward into

northern Kansas and southern Nebraska, where linear MCS development

will be possible later this evening.



...Southern Plains...

Water-vapor imagery currently shows a mid-level trough over the

Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. A associated mid-level jet is

moving through west Texas, where a dryline is located. To the east

of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 60s F and MLCAPE is

estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms

are forecast to develop late this evening on the Caprock of west

Texas, within the right entrance region of the mid-level jet. These

storms are expected to organize into a severe storm cluster, moving

northeastward across northwest Texas and into southwest Oklahoma

tonight. Additional storms may develop further south across parts of

the west-central Texas.



RAP forecast soundings after midnight across northwest Texas and

southwest Oklahoma have MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear

around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8 to 8.5 C/km

range. This will be very favorable for supercells with large hail.

Hailstones of up to 3 inches in diameter will be possible with the

strongest of supercells. In addition, forecast soundings have looped

hodographs with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2,

suggesting that a tornado threat will develop. Wind damage will be

possible, with the threat becoming maximized if a short line segment

can eventually organize.



..Broyles.. 04/26/2024



$$