####018003109####
ACUS03 KWNS 230731

SWODY3

SPC AC 230730



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0230 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024



Valid 251200Z - 261200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EAST

TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered severe thunderstorms with a threat for a few tornadoes and

damaging winds should occur Monday through Monday night from parts

of east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley.



...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley...

Large-scale upper troughing, with multiple embedded mid-level

perturbations, is forecast to continue advancing eastward across the

central CONUS on Monday. The primary feature of interest for severe

potential will be a shortwave trough over northern Mexico and the

southern Plains that will eject across the lower MS Valley by the

end of the period. With the primary surface low over the Upper

Midwest, a secondary low should develop across the lower MS Valley

Monday evening and overnight into early Tuesday morning, as

large-scale ascent preceding the shortwave trough overspreads the

warm sector. A strong (40-60 kt) southerly low-level jet is also

expected to develop in this time frame, which should aid in the

transport of 60s surface dewpoints northward across LA/MS and

southern AR.



Thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period Monday

morning across parts of central/east TX along or just ahead of a

cold front. Current expectations are for more robust convective

development to occur by Monday afternoon across parts of east TX

into LA, as at least weak instability develops in the presence of

strong deep-layer shear. Updraft organization is anticipated,

including the potential for pre-frontal supercells. But, this

scenario remains rather uncertain. A greater likelihood exists for

frontal convection in the form of a QLCS, posing a threat for both

damaging winds and line-embedded tornadoes as it continues eastward

across LA/MS and vicinity Monday evening into early Tuesday morning.

The potential for nocturnal tornadoes is apparent, especially across

northeastern LA into central/southern MS, as low-level shear should

increase in tandem with the strengthening low-level jet. If

confidence increases that supercells will develop ahead of the

front/squall line, then greater severe probabilities would likely be

needed.



...Iowa...

A cold-core mid/upper trough will move quickly northeastward across

the Upper Midwest Monday. Even though low-level moisture should

remain quite limited, most guidance shows low 50s surface dewpoints

present ahead of a deep surface low across IA Monday afternoon. Just

modest daytime heating will support weak destabilization given the

cold mid-level temperatures, and deep-layer shear appears strong

enough for organized thunderstorms. Isolated hail, strong/gusty

winds, and perhaps even a tornado or two all appear possible with

any sustained low-topped convection.



..Gleason.. 03/23/2024



$$