####018002369#### ACUS48 KWNS 230853 SWOD48 SPC AC 230852 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... An isolated severe threat may persist into Day 4/Tuesday across parts of the lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast and vicinity. The southern extent of a highly amplified upper trough will be present over these areas, with enhanced mid/upper-level flow supporting strong deep-layer shear and the potential for continued thunderstorm organization. However, the surface warm sector is likely to become increasingly confined to coastal portions of AL and the FL Panhandle through Tuesday afternoon/evening. This lowers confidence in appreciable inland destabilization occurring ahead of a cold front and thunderstorms likely to be ongoing Tuesday morning. Therefore, a 15% severe area has not been included for Tuesday. The southern portion of the upper trough should move slowly eastward across portions of the Southeast on Day 5/Wednesday. Rich low-level moisture should remain confined to parts of coastal GA/SC and FL. Severe potential across these areas appears fairly low given only weak instability is forecast to develop Wednesday afternoon. But, an isolated/marginal severe threat may exist in this narrow corridor ahead of a cold front. By Day 6/Thursday, medium-range guidance is in good agreement that the southern branch of upper troughing will advance more quickly eastward across the remainder of the Southeast. A related cold front should sweep eastward across the FL Peninsula through the day as a coastal low develops over/near the eastern Carolinas. While some severe threat may exist with any frontal convection, instability appears too weak to support inclusion of a 15% severe area for Thursday across FL. There are indications that by late next week and weekend, another upper trough may amplify as it moves over the western CONUS. Severe potential in this extended time frame will largely be tied to whether sufficient low-level moisture will be able to advance northward across the southern/central Plains as lee cyclogenesis occurs over the High Plains. At this point, it appears a somewhat better severe threat may exist beyond Day 8/Saturday. ..Gleason.. 03/23/2024