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ACUS01 KWNS 040538

SWODY1

SPC AC 040536



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1236 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024



Valid 041200Z - 051200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the

southern High Plains into the Hill Country of central Texas this

afternoon and evening. Several storms may produce very large hail,

and a couple strong tornadoes are possible.



...Southern High Plains to the Hill Country of TX...



Water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude short-wave trough off

the Baja Peninsula. This feature will advance across northern Mexico

by early evening as a 500mb speed max translates toward the Big Bend

of west TX, subsequently moving into central TX by 05/12z. A

reservoir of very moist/unstable air will reside across south

TX/Edwards Plateau into portions of west TX. Robust convection will

easily develop ahead of the short wave and quickly become severe

during the afternoon. Very large hail and the threat for tornadoes

can reasonably be expected.



Early this morning, surface pressures are building across the

central Plains in the wake of ejecting northern-stream short-wave

trough. Surface front will surge across the TX South Plains early in

the period, and will likely arc along/near I-20 into southeast NM by

18z. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating

will occur ahead of the wind shift across far west TX into the Trans

Pecos. Forecast soundings, south of the front, suggest surface

parcels will reach their convective temperatures by 20z, just east

of the dryline. This feature will be forced deep into west TX and

will be one of the foci for convective development, along with the

cold front. Latest NAM PFC for INK at 20z exhibits MLCAPE on the

order of 3500 J/kg with surface-6km bulk shear around 45kt.

Scattered supercells will likely develop by mid afternoon and

quickly attain severe levels. This activity will grow upscale and

shift downstream, aided by the progressive short wave. In response

to the short wave, LLJ is forecast to focus across west TX through

early evening then strengthen and shift east toward the I-35

corridor by sunrise Sunday. Initial convective mode will be

supercellular and very large hail can be expected. Additionally,

moistening boundary layer will support tornadoes, possibly strong,

as shear will be strong. With time, MCS is expected to mature and

propagate toward central TX during the overnight hours.



..Darrow/Wendt.. 05/04/2024



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