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ACUS01 KWNS 250103

SWODY1

SPC AC 250102



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0802 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024



Valid 250100Z - 251200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN TEXAS...



...SUMMARY...

An instance of large hail, a damaging wind gust, or perhaps a

tornado, remain possible this evening, particularly in central or

northern Texas.



...Synopsis...

A mid-level jet streak is overspreading the southern Plains,

supporting the continued eastward progression of a dryline pendant

from a strong surface cyclone over the central High Plains. Multiple

clusters of storms are in progress across the central and southern

Plains ahead of the dryline. However, the ongoing storms (north of

the Red River) are outpacing the buoyancy axis that is roughly

oriented along and to the west of the I-35 corridor. Given strong

vertical wind shear north of the Red River, Category 1/Marginal

risk-based probabilities have been maintained. An instance or two of

damaging gusts, large hail, or maybe a tornado could still occur for

any storm that can manage to ingest surface-based, unstable parcels

before weakening over the next couple of hours.



Farther south, storms along and to the south of the Red River are

more robust, with supercell structures observed on regional/MRMS

mosaic radar imagery. Mid 50s surface dewpoints beneath 7+ C/km

mid-level lapse rates support 500+ J/kg SBCAPE. Despite marginal

buoyancy, 30+ kt 850 mb flow beneath the 60+ kt westerly jet streak

support curved and elongated hodographs. As such, supercells and

linear segments are expected to continue developing down toward the

Edwards Plateau and should persist eastward through tonight with a

large hail/damaging gust threat. Given strong low-level shear, a

tornado or two also cannot be ruled out.



..Squitieri.. 03/25/2024



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