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ACUS02 KWNS 250552

SWODY2

SPC AC 250550



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1250 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024



Valid 261200Z - 271200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/SOUTHERN GREAT

LAKES...



...SUMMARY...

An isolated threat for damaging winds and a tornado or two may

persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate

area of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms potentially

developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and

southern Great Lakes.



...Synopsis...

A large-scale upper trough will continue to dominate much of the

CONUS on Tuesday. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough is forecast

to advance quickly northeastward across the OH Valley and Great

Lakes regions through the day. The primary surface low should be

located over the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, and it should

develop northeastward into Ontario in tandem with the shortwave

trough. A trailing cold front will sweep east-southeastward through

the period across the OH/TN Valleys and parts of the Southeast.



...Central Gulf Coast States...

A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the

period Tuesday morning across parts of central/southern AL and the 

western FL Panhandle. This activity is expected to continue moving

eastward while gradually weakening through the morning, as it

generally outpaces rich low-level moisture return and appreciable

instability. Still, a narrow spatial/temporal window will probably

exist for strong to locally damaging winds with the line, so long as

it can remain near-surface-based. A brief tornado or two also

appears possible focused along/near the coast, as 0-1-km SRH

associated with the southern extent of a 40-60 kt low-level jet

should be sufficient for updraft rotation. An isolated severe threat

may persist into Tuesday afternoon and continue through Tuesday

night across southeastern AL, southwestern GA, and the FL Panhandle

vicinity as mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints attempt to advance

inland across these areas. But, poor lapse rates aloft and limited

daytime heating from cloud cover should temper the development of

any more than weak instability.



...Midwest/Southern Great Lakes...

Beneath a very strong (90-110 kt) mid-level jet and ahead of a

surface cold front, low-topped convection may form relatively early

in the day across eastern IL and western IN. Although low-level

moisture is expected to remain rather limited with surface dewpoints

generally in the low 50s, cold mid-level temperatures coupled with

daytime heating should aid in the development of weak instability

through Tuesday afternoon. Impressive low/mid-level winds veering

with height will support strong deep-layer shear and updraft

organization. Given the forecast strength of the low-level flow,

isolated strong to severe winds appear to be the main threat.

However, sufficient low-level shear to support some risk for a

tornado or two should also be present. Given latest model trends

regarding areas where weak destabilization seems probable, the

Marginal Risk has been expanded westward to include parts of eastern

IL, and northward to encompass much of southern Lower MI. With the

loss of daytime heating, convection should quickly weaken by Tuesday

evening as it continues eastward into western OH.



..Gleason.. 03/25/2024



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