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ACUS03 KWNS 250725

SWODY3

SPC AC 250724



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0224 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024



Valid 271200Z - 281200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Wednesday.



...Synopsis and Discussion...

A large-scale upper trough, with split mid-level jets, will move

slowly eastward across the central/eastern CONUS on Wednesday.

Enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will persist over the Southeast,

while a cold front stalls across the FL Panhandle, GA, and

Carolinas. At least low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be

present along and southeast of the front. But, poor lapse rates and

ongoing convection/cloudiness Wednesday morning are expected to

hamper robust destabilization. While occasional gusty winds may

occur with the strongest thunderstorms that can develop through the

afternoon, the overall wind threat appears too limited at this time

to include low severe probabilities.



There are some indications in various model guidance that convection

may develop Wednesday afternoon on the backside of the upper trough

across parts of the southern Plains. Typically, this area would be

in a subsident regime, with minimal convective potential owing to a

lack of low-level moisture/boundary-layer instability. However, in

this case, it appears that cold temperatures aloft combined with

shallow/residual low-level moisture and daytime heating will provide

modest destabilization as the boundary layer becomes well mixed.

Weak instability should preclude an organized severe threat, but

isolated strong/gusty winds appear possible with any high-based

convection that develops.



Finally, occasional lightning flashes may occur with low-topped

thunderstorms across coastal portions of the Pacific Northwest. This

potential should focus mainly in the afternoon and evening time

frame, as cold mid-level temperatures and pronounced ascent

associated with an approaching upper trough overspread this region.



..Gleason.. 03/25/2024



$$