####018004096#### ACUS02 KWNS 251730 SWODY2 SPC AC 251728 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... An isolated threat for damaging winds and a tornado or two may persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate area of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms potentially developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... Extensive upper troughing is expected to cover the majority of the CONUS early Tuesday morning. Moderate to strong mid-level flow will extend throughout this troughing Tuesday morning, arcing cyclonically from the West Coast across central Mexico and the TX Gulf Coast, and then up the MS Valley through the Upper Great Lakes. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this large troughing, with the most prominent shortwave beginning the period over the Mid MS Valley. Expectation is for this shortwave to move quickly northeastward into eastern Ontario by the afternoon, accompanied by very strong mid-level flow (i.e. 100+ kt at 500 mb). Deep surface low associated with this wave is also expected to move northeastward from its initial position over northwest WI into northwest Ontario. As it does, an attendant cold front will sweep quickly eastward/northeastward across the Mid MS Valley, the Upper Great Lakes, and the OH Valley. Farther south, thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Tuesday morning along an outflow-reinforced cold front stretching from middle TN southwestward off the AL/MS coast. Steady eastward progression of this front is expected throughout the day, before it stalls over GA and the eastern FL Panhandle Tuesday evening. ...Southern AL into Southeast GA and the FL Panhandle... Ongoing convective line is expected to extend from central AL into coastal AL and the far western FL Panhandle early Tuesday morning. Moderate low-level moisture and buoyancy will be over southwest AL/coastal AL and the far western FL Panhandle early Tuesday, with some potential for damaging gusts and maybe even a brief tornado or two as the line moves through. An isolated severe threat may persist into Tuesday afternoon and continue through Tuesday night across southeastern AL, southwestern GA, and the FL Panhandle vicinity as mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints attempt to advance inland across these areas. However, poor lapse rates aloft and limited daytime heating from cloud cover should temper buoyancy, leading to a gradually diminishing storm intensity. ...OH Valley/Southern Lower MI... Clearing is anticipated in the wake of the warm conveyor and ahead of the primary cold front across the OH Valley and southern Lower MI, beginning during the late morning over IL. This clearing is expected to allow temperatures to climb into the 60s. Low-level moisture will be limited (i.e. in the low 50s), but the combination of modest low-level moisture with temperatures in the 60s and cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. around -20 deg C at 500 mb) is expected to result in air mass destabilization and modest buoyancy. Shallow thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front as it interacts with this destabilized air mass, likely beginning during the late morning across IL before then moving eastward/northeastward throughout the day. Buoyancy will be modest, but robust low to mid-level fields will be present and the deep-layer vertical shear vector will oriented mostly perpendicular to the front. These factors suggest fast-moving storms capable of damaging gusts, particularly since the gradient surface wind will already be enhanced. A tornado or two is also possible, although the limited storm depth could act as a limiting factor for greater storm organization. ..Mosier.. 03/25/2024 $$