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ACUS02 KWNS 050602

SWODY2

SPC AC 050600



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0100 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024



Valid 061200Z - 071200Z



...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...



...SUMMARY...

Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move

eastward Monday afternoon through Monday night across parts of the

southern/central Plains. Multiple strong/potentially long-track

tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and severe/damaging winds all

appear likely.



...Synopsis...

A negatively tilted upper trough with embedded 50-70 kt mid-level

speed maximum will eject northeastward across the northern/central

Plains on Monday. At the surface, the primary low will consolidate

over the northern High Plains of eastern MT into western ND/SD and

vicinity, with a secondary surface low forecast to develop over the

central High Plains by Monday evening. A rather moist low-level

airmass, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 60s to low 70s,

will spread northward across the southern/central Plains ahead of an

eastward-mixing dryline and southeastward-moving cold front. A warm

front should eventually reach eastward across parts of NE/IA. This

warm front should be the northern limit of appreciable

severe-thunderstorm potential through Monday night.



...Southern/Central Plains...

Confidence has increased in a corridor of greater potential for

strong tornadoes and very large hail, with multiple supercells

likely to develop across south-central KS and western/central OK

late Monday afternoon and continuing through much of the evening.

Accordingly, a Moderate Risk has been introduced for this area.



Daytime heating of the moist low-level airmass, coupled with steep

mid-level lapse rates, will foster moderate to strong instability

developing along/east of the dryline Monday afternoon. Peak

pre-convective MLCAPE will likely reach 2500-4000 J/kg across much

of central KS into western/central OK and northwest TX. Strong

deep-layer shear of 40-50 kt will easily support supercells with

initial thunderstorm development. Convective initiation appears

likely by early Monday afternoon as ascent with the lead shortwave

trough overspreads NE/KS. Very large hail will be a threat

initially, but most guidance suggests a fairly quick transition to a

more linear mode with time Monday afternoon/evening, especially as

the cold front overtakes the dryline. An increasing threat for

damaging winds and embedded tornadic circulations will likely occur

as this mode transition occurs, in tandem with strengthening

boundary-layer shear associated with a strengthening southerly

low-level jet. This damaging-wind/tornado threat may continue into

the overnight hours into parts of IA/MO, and the Slight Risk has

been expanded eastward to account for this potential.



Farther south across western OK and south-central KS, more modest

large-scale ascent and related mid-level height falls associated

with a more westerly mid/upper-level jet will eventually overspread

the dryline and warm sector by late Monday afternoon. Although

overall convective coverage will likely be lower compared to

locations farther north, there should be a better chance for

supercell structures to be maintained, as deep-layer shear vectors

appear more orthogonal to the initiating boundary (dryline). A

southerly low-level jet should strengthen to around 40-45 kt through

early Monday evening across this area, greatly enhancing

corresponding low-level shear and effective SRH. The best chance for

strong, potentially long-track tornadoes and giant hail (3-4 inches)

should exist with any supercells that can persist Monday evening in

a very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space.

Similar to locations farther north in KS/NE, upscale growth should

eventually occur across central/eastern OK. A threat for damaging

winds and tornadoes (some potentially strong) should continue Monday

night into early Tuesday with eastward extent across the southern

Plains given a sufficiently unstable and strongly sheared

environment.



..Gleason.. 05/05/2024



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