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ACUS48 KWNS 050901

SWOD48

SPC AC 050900



Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0400 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024



Valid 081200Z - 131200Z



...DISCUSSION...

...Day 4/Wednesday...

The upper cyclone over the northern Plains should evolve into an

open wave as it moves slowly eastward across the Upper Midwest on

Wednesday. A belt of enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level flow will

likely persist from parts of the southern/central Plains into the

mid MS Valley and OH Valley/Midwest. An embedded shortwave trough

should encourage the development of a weak surface low over the mid

MS Valley by late Wednesday afternoon. A warm front should extend

eastward from this low across the OH Valley, while a cold front is

forecast to extend southward from the low across the southern

Plains. Moderate to strong instability should develop from

north-central/northeast TX into the Mid-South/mid MS Valley and

parts of the OH/TN Valleys, as daytime heating acts on a rich/moist

low-level airmass. Strong deep-layer shear will act to organize

convection that can develop along both the warm and cold fronts

through Wednesday afternoon/evening. Supercells posing a threat for

all severe hazards appear possible, as well as clusters capable of

producing damaging winds. Given that convection may be ongoing

Wednesday morning across parts of these regions, confidence in a

corridor of greater severe potential remains too low to include a

30% severe area at this time.



...Day 5/Thursday...

Differences in model guidance regarding the position and amplitude

of an upper trough across the Midwest/OH Valley become more

pronounced by Thursday. Still, some chance for organized severe

thunderstorms remains apparent from parts of the Mid-Atlantic

southwestward into portions of the Southeast, and perhaps TX too.

Confidence in the location of relevant surface boundaries and areas

of greater instability to their south remains low, owing to multiple

days of prior convection and various associated outflows. Trends in

model guidance will continue to be monitored for possible inclusion

of one or more 15% severe areas, pending better model agreement.



...Day 6/Friday...

Severe potential should become confined to parts of the Southeast on

Friday, as a cold front generally moves east-southeastward across

the eastern CONUS in tandem with an upper trough. Similar concerns

as Thursday exist regarding where better severe potential will

focus, with generally low predictability at this time.



...Day 7/Saturday and Day 8/Sunday...

Any lingering severe threat should be confined to parts of FL on

Saturday, along/south of a cold front. With limited low-level

convergence forecast, overall severe potential seems fairly low.

Minimal severe threat across the CONUS is currently evident for next

Sunday, as the cold front clears the East Coast.



..Gleason.. 05/05/2024