####018002045####
ACUS48 KWNS 260902

SWOD48

SPC AC 260900



Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0400 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024



Valid 291200Z - 031200Z



...DISCUSSION...

The potential for severe thunderstorms across the CONUS appears low

from Day 4/Friday into at least Day 5/Saturday. An upper trough/low

should dig southward along/near the West Coast in this time frame.

Low-level moisture is forecast to gradually return northward across

the southern/central Plains, lower/mid MS Valley, and OH Valley

through the upcoming weekend. Medium-range guidance is starting to

come into better agreement regarding the evolution and eventual

ejection of this upper trough/low across the western and central

states, with a more positively tilted solution somewhat more

probable based on latest ensemble guidance. Regardless, it seems

likely that a substantial warm sector will be in place across much

of the southern Plains into the lower/mid MS Valley, and perhaps

even the OH Valley by Day 6/Sunday and Day 7/Monday.



If a northern-stream upper trough over central Canada can phase with

the ejecting lower-latitude trough over the western CONUS, as some

guidance suggests, then a more organized severe threat may exist,

focused on Day 7/Monday and Day 8/Tuesday. At this point, the

regions of interest include locations along/east of a surface

dryline over the southern/central Plains, and along/south of a warm

front draped across the OH Valley. Both instability and deep-layer

shear appear strong enough for severe convection. But, there are

still some substantial differences in the location of greatest

severe risk next Monday and Tuesday. Trends in guidance will be

closely monitored. If deterministic and ensemble guidance can come

into better agreement regarding the evolution of the upper trough,

along with related surface features, then a broad 15% severe area

may be needed for next Monday and/or Tuesday in later outlooks.



..Gleason.. 03/26/2024