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ACUS02 KWNS 261731

SWODY2

SPC AC 261729



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1229 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024



Valid 271200Z - 281200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH

FLORIDA AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across

north Florida, and also across parts of north-central Texas.

Isolated hail and damaging winds should be the main hazards for both

areas.



...Florida into the Carolinas...

A cold front is forecast to gradually move eastward across parts of

Florida into the Carolinas on Wednesday, in conjunction with the

southern portion of a deep upper-level trough moving into the

eastern CONUS. Early-day convection and related cloudiness may tend

to limit destabilization, but some diurnal heating along the eastern

periphery of the morning convection may support MLCAPE increasing

above 1000 J/kg by early afternoon. Favorable deep-layer shear will

support potential for a few strong storms through the forecast

period, with potential for isolated hail and damaging gusts.

Multiple rounds of storms will be possible in some areas, with some

convection lingering through the morning, and later redevelopment

possible in areas where stronger heating occurs, and also

potentially along the trailing cold front. 



Farther north, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out from

southeast GA into the coastal Carolinas vicinity, along/ahead of the

cold front. However, there is greater uncertainty regarding

potential for destabilization across these areas in the wake of

morning convection. If some diurnal heating/destabilization can

occur in advance of the front, then an isolated severe threat could

eventually evolve, though uncertainty remains too high to include

severe probabilities at this time. 



...Parts of north into central TX...

Despite generally meager low-level moisture across the region, cold

temperatures aloft (500 mb temperatures around -25C) will support

modest diurnal destabilization from north into central TX. Isolated

to widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected by late

afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm

organization, and a southeastward-moving supercell or two will be

possible. Hail may be the most likely hazard, given the cold

temperature profiles, but steep lapse rates could also support

isolated strong/damaging gusts.



..Dean.. 03/26/2024



$$