####018002342#### ACUS01 KWNS 261953 SWODY1 SPC AC 261952 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN...EASTERN INDIANA...AND WESTERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts remain possible late this afternoon into the evening over parts of the Lower Michigan/southern Great Lakes region, and the eastern Gulf Coastal Plain. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been trimmed across parts of IN and southwest lower MI, in the wake of a cold frontal passage. Otherwise, no changes have been made. See the previous discussion below and MCD 307 for more details. A small part of the Marginal Risk has been trimmed across the FL Panhandle, based on the progression of ongoing convection. See the previous discussion below for more details regarding the threat across the FL Peninsula and south GA. ..Dean.. 03/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024/ ...FL Panhandle and Vicinity... A surface cold front continues to sag southward across parts of AL and the FL Panhandle. Scattered thunderstorms are occurring along the front (mainly offshore), with occasional updrafts showing some organization. It is expected that the bulk of this activity will remain offshore due to widespread clouds and limited destabilization inland. However, there is some chance of a strong storm or two this afternoon. After dark, most model guidance suggest the frontal convection will strengthen, with a continued risk of a few strong storms into north FL. ...Lower MI/IN/Western OH... A strong cold front is sweeping eastward into western IN late this morning, and will move across Lower MI/IN/western OH through the day. Widespread clouds and meager low-level moisture ahead of the front will limit destabilization, with forecast soundings suggesting the convective layer may remain too shallow to support much lightning. Nevertheless, strong winds just above the surface coupled with cold temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few strong storms later today, capable of damaging wind gusts. The time period of greatest concern should roughly be from 22-02z. $$