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ACUS01 KWNS 270538

SWODY1

SPC AC 270536



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1236 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024



Valid 271200Z - 281200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH

FLORIDA INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ACROSS

NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across north

Florida into the coastal plain of South Carolina, and also across

parts of north-central Texas. Isolated hail and damaging winds

should be the main hazards for both areas.



...Florida into the Carolinas...

A core of a strong belt of southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast

to gradually overspread a pre-frontal region from the Carolinas into

north FL during the day.  Coincident with the strengthening flow, a

large-scale trough initially over TX, will pivot east and reach AL

by early Thursday morning.  Early-day convection and related

cloudiness will likely delay stronger heating, but cloud breaks and

a cessation of precip will lead to weak to locally moderate

destabilization during peak heating.  Strengthening flow fields will

support storm organization with any robust updrafts.  Models

continue to show episodic convection throughout the day, which lends

some uncertainty when the potential for stronger storms will occur. 

Isolated damaging gusts (peaking in the 50-65 mph range) and severe

hail (1.0-1.5 inches in diameter) are possible.  The risk for

stronger storms may persist into the late evening near the Carolina

coast.



...Parts of north into central TX...

Despite generally meager low-level moisture across the region, cold

temperatures aloft (500 mb temperatures around -25C) in the vicinity

of the mid-level trough axis, will support weak buoyancy (250-750

J/kg MLCAPE) from north into central TX.  Isolated to widely

scattered thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon. 

Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, and

a southeastward-moving supercell or two will be possible.  Hail may

be the most likely hazard, given the cold temperature profiles, but

steep lapse rates could also support isolated severe gusts.



..Smith/Squitieri.. 03/27/2024



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