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ACUS02 KWNS 270546

SWODY2

SPC AC 270545



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1245 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024



Valid 281200Z - 291200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday.



...Synopsis and Discussion...

A southern-stream upper trough will move from the Southeast to the

western Atlantic on Thursday. A weak surface low near the NC/SC

Coast will likewise develop east-northeastward over the Gulf Stream

through the day, while a trailing cold front sweeps southeastward

across the FL Peninsula and the Keys. Limited low-level convergence

along this front should keep any thunderstorm potential quite

isolated over land. While the environment across south FL appears

conditionally favorable for organized thunderstorms, the overall

severe potential still appears too low to add any severe

probabilities. Generally elevated thunderstorms may also occur

across parts of coastal NC/SC through early Thursday afternoon in a

modest low-level warm advection regime, as pronounced forcing for

ascent associated with the upper trough overlaps weak MUCAPE.



Occasional lightning flashes may also occur Thursday across parts of

both the coastal and interior Northwest, as well as northern

California and the northern Rockies/Great Basin. An upper trough is

forecast to move eastward across these areas through the period,

with cold mid-level temperatures (around -20 to -30C at 500 mb)

aiding in weak destabilization. Limited moisture and instability are

expected to preclude severe thunderstorms across these areas.



..Gleason.. 03/27/2024



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