####018001778#### ACUS03 KWNS 270727 SWODY3 SPC AC 270726 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low should dig southward along or very near the northern/central CA Coast Friday. Isolated lightning flashes may occur across parts of coastal central CA through the period, as cold mid-level temperatures aid in the development of weak MUCAPE. A separate area of isolated thunderstorm potential, mainly related to orographic lift, is also apparent over portions of central Rockies. Farther east, a modified Gulf airmass should slowly advance northward from the southern Plains into parts of the mid MS Valley and Upper Midwest by Friday evening. The northern extent of this low-level moisture plume is expected to remain rather shallow and limited, with surface dewpoints no greater than the low 50s. Still, a weak shortwave trough forecast to eject across the northern/ central Plains should aid in weak cyclogenesis across the Upper Midwest. It could also provide sufficient lift, in tandem with a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet, to support thunderstorm development mainly Friday night from parts of the mid MO Valley into the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. Even though deep-layer shear is forecast to become strong in this time frame, convection will probably tend to remain elevated. Generally weak MUCAPE should limit the threat for severe-caliber hail, although small hail with the most robust updrafts appears possible. ..Gleason.. 03/27/2024 $$