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ACUS01 KWNS 271954

SWODY1

SPC AC 271952



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0252 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024



Valid 272000Z - 281200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE

NEAR-COASTAL SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH

TEXAS...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated severe hail and damaging winds remain possible over parts

of the near-coastal Southeast, as well as portions of central and

north Texas.



...20Z Update...

No major changes have been made to the outlook. The evolution of

convection remains uncertain across north FL due to ongoing storms,

but redevelopment of a few strong storms remains possible along the

cold front into southeast GA and the Carolinas late this afternoon

into this evening. Storms have recently developed across central TX,

with additional development possible into north TX later this

afternoon. Cold air aloft will support an isolated hail threat with

the strongest storms in this area. See the previous discussion below

for more information, and MCD 310 regarding the short-term threat in

central TX.



..Dean.. 03/27/2024



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/



...Synopsis...

Minor changes were made to expand the Marginal risk across the

southeast into portions of southern South Carolina and to expand the

Marginal Risk across Texas further south into central Texas to

account for recent trends. 



...Southeast CONUS...

A broken line of thunderstorms continues to move eastward across the

northern Florida Panhandle this morning. This activity will move

offshore through the late morning/afternoon. 



A surface cold front/stationary front will slowly move eastward as

weak frontal wave develops across the Carolinas this afternoon and a

surface low deepens across the Gulf. Broken mid-to high level cloud

cover will remain in place across much of the northern Florida

Peninsula northward into the Carolinas in the wake of morning

convection. Strengthening warm air advection in combination with

some breaks in the cloud cover across this region should help to

allow air mass recovery into the afternoon, with RAP forecast

soundings developing around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE in a band from

southern South Carolina into the northern Florida Peninsula.

Widespread thunderstorm development is expected along the front by

late afternoon/early evening. A few more robust thunderstorms will

be capable of damaging winds and large hail, given strong deep layer

shear profiles. A few of these stronger storms may extend as far

northward as southern South Carolina where a surface warm

front/stationary front will extend, supporting a northward expansion

of the Marginal risk into this region.



...Central and North Texas....

Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop across

northern and central Texas this afternoon as temperatures cool aloft

and steep lapse rates overspread modest moisture. This activity will

largely be driven by diurnal heating, with storms developing in the

afternoon and decreasing in coverage through the evening. Given the

cooling aloft, steep lapse rates, and modest deep layer shear. A few

transient supercell structures will be possible with potential for

large hail and gusty winds. The Marginal across this region was

expanded southward to account for recent trends in hi-res guidance

to capture potential for afternoon thunderstorm coverage.



$$