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ACUS03 KWNS 070732

SWODY3

SPC AC 070731



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0231 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024



Valid 091200Z - 101200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EAST

TEXAS INTO THE PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...CAROLINAS...AND

MID-ATLANTIC...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Thursday

from parts of central/east Texas into the lower Mississippi

Valley/Southeast, and northeastward into parts of the Carolinas and

Mid-Atlantic.



...Central/East Texas into the Southeast, Carolinas, and

Mid-Atlantic...

An upper trough will gradually consolidate and move eastward across

the Midwest and OH Valley on Thursday. A weak surface low is

forecast to develop from the OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic through

the day, with a trailing cold front extending southwestward from

this low across the Carolinas, Southeast, and into parts of

central/east TX. The cold front should serve as a focus for

convective initiation Thursday afternoon. With steep mid-level lapse

rates present atop a very moist low-level airmass, moderate to

strong instability is anticipated from central TX into the lower MS

Valley/Southeast. A weak mid-level perturbation emanating from

northern Mexico may support convective initiation across

central/east TX by late Thursday afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear

should support organized convection, with a threat for mainly large

hail and severe/damaging winds.



Across the lower MS Valley/Southeast, one or more clusters may form

along the southward-sagging cold front. A MCS posing a threat for

mainly damaging winds may eventually evolve and spread

east-southeastward across parts of LA into southern MS/AL Thursday

afternoon and perhaps continuing into the night. Farther east into

the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic, weak to moderate instability should

develop ahead of the cold front with daytime heating. Mid-level flow

and related deep-layer shear should increase through the day with

the eastward progression of the upper trough. Thunderstorms should

gradually increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon,

especially along/east of the Blue Ridge and Appalachian Mountains.

Hail and damaging winds will be a concern with any clusters or

supercells that can develop and spread east-southeastward towards

the Atlantic Coast through Thursday evening.



..Gleason.. 05/07/2024



$$