####018002220#### ACUS03 KWNS 280727 SWODY3 SPC AC 280726 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A deep, closed upper low initially off the coast of central CA should move slowly southward along/near the southern CA Coast on Saturday. Cold mid-level temperatures and strong forcing for ascent associated with an enhanced mid/upper-level jet should support weak instability, and the potential for isolated lighting flashes with any low-topped convection that can develop from parts of central into southern CA. Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across this region given the meager MUCAPE forecast. Isolated thunderstorms may occur Saturday over parts of the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley, as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves east-southeastward across these areas. A weak surface low is also forecast to develop eastward over this region in tandem with the shortwave trough. Limited low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the low 50s, should temper how much instability can develop through Saturday afternoon given the presence of modest to poor mid-level lapse rates. This will likely hinder the overall severe threat across the OH Valley, even though deep-layer shear conditionally supports the potential for organized convection. Finally, occasional lightning flashes may occur with elevated convection that develops late Saturday night into early Sunday morning across parts of NE into southwestern IA and northern MO. Low-level moisture is expected to gradually return northward across the southern/central Plains through the day, and this area will be on northern fringe of this process. Strong forcing associated with a southerly low-level jet may provide sufficient lift for parcels to reach their LFC. Still, forecast MUCAPE appears too weak to support a meaningful hail threat through the end of the period (early Sunday morning). ..Gleason.. 03/28/2024 $$