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ACUS48 KWNS 291020

SWOD48

SPC AC 291019



Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0519 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024



Valid 011200Z - 061200Z



...DISCUSSION...

...Monday/Day 4...

An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Four

Corners region on Monday, as strong southwest mid-level flow remains

in place from the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley.

Early in the day, an east-to-west boundary is forecast from northern

Missouri eastward into the Ohio Valley, along which will likely

focus elevated thunderstorm development from Monday morning into the

afternoon. Large hail could occur with some of the more intense

storms. The severe threat is expected to persist into the evening,

and possibly into the overnight period as an MCS moves into the

region from the west-southwest



Further southwest, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place from

northeast Texas into eastern Oklahoma and eastern Kansas, extending

eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. A surface low is forecast

to develop over the central Plains, as a 75 to 90 knot mid-level jet

ejects northeastward across the southern Plains. As the nose of the

jet moves over the moist and unstable airmass during the afternoon

and evening, widespread severe weather is expected to occur. Strong

deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates are forecast to be favorable

for a large-hail threat with supercells across parts of Texas,

Oklahoma and Kansas eastward into the lower Missouri Valley.

Tornadoes and wind damage will also be possible, especially as the

low-level jet strengthens and an MCS organizes across the region

during the evening. The MCS is expected to remain severe into the

overnight period, moving eastward into the Mid Mississippi Valley.



...Tuesday/Day 5...

The upper-level system is forecast to move eastward into the Ozarks

and mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. An associated cold front will

likely move quickly eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley early

in the day. Ahead of the front, a moist and unstable airmass is

expected to be in place by midday, with scattered to numerous

thunderstorms developing in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys in the

afternoon. The mid-level jet is forecast to move into the Ohio

Valley by late afternoon, suggesting that a widespread severe threat

will be possible. Strong deep-layer shear and lift associated with

the jet would be favorable for supercells with a threat for wind

damage, large hail and some tornadoes. The severe threat is forecast

to extend southward into the Tennessee Valley, and eastward into the

Mid-Atlantic, where scattered severe storms will be possible within

a moist and unstable airmass.



...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8...

An upper-level low is forecast to move through the Ohio Valley on

Wednesday as a cold front advances eastward to the Atlantic

Seaboard. A severe threat would be possible ahead of the front

during the day from the Mid-Atlantic southward into the eastern

Carolinas. However, the timing of the front and the magnitude of any

severe potential are uncertain at this time. Model consensus

suggests that the severe threat should be less widespread than on

previous days further west.



On Thursday and Friday, a large area of high pressure is forecast to

move into the central and eastern U.S. This will reduce the

potential for thunderstorm development across most of the U.S.



..Broyles.. 03/29/2024