####018001942#### ACUS02 KWNS 250601 SWODY2 SPC AC 250600 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... Across the West, an upper-level trough initially over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to move east-southeastward through the day. An upper-level low initially off of the Baja California coast is forecast to evolve into an open wave and begin moving eastward, in response to the digging trough to the north. Weak convection related to these troughs will be possible across much of the West. At this time, the greatest relative threat of sporadic lightning flashes is expected near the Pacific Northwest coast (supported by very cold temperatures aloft), eastern Great Basin into the central Rockies (as ascent spreads east-southeastward with the upper trough), and in the vicinity of the Channel Islands offshore of southern CA (associated with the southernmost ejecting trough). Farther east, MUCAPE may increase into the 500-1500 J/kg range Monday night from eastern portions of the southern Plains into parts of the MS/OH Valleys and Great Lakes region, related to modest moisture return beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates. However, with moisture quality expected to be lackluster and large-scale ascent rather nebulous, lingering MUCINH may preclude vigorous deep convection across most of the region. A broad general thunderstorm area has been maintained with this outlook, though confidence is low regarding coverage and favored location of nocturnal storm development. If deep convection can be sustained overnight, then a strong storm or two capable of at least small hail could evolve prior to the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 02/25/2024 $$