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ACUS02 KWNS 090558

SWODY2

SPC AC 090556



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1256 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024



Valid 101200Z - 111200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

NORTH FLORIDA...SOUTH GEORGIA...AND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible Friday

across parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds should be the main

threat.



...Southeast...

A compact but intense bow/MCS may be ongoing Friday morning across

parts of south GA into north FL. The location of this bow, its

intensity, and potential longevity to the Atlantic Coast remain

rather uncertain at this time. Still, a moist and unstable airmass

should be present across the Southeast Friday morning, along and

south of a cold front. A convectively augmented mid-level vorticity

maximum should accompany the small bow across the central Gulf Coast

vicinity. This feature and attendant enhanced mid-level westerly

winds should provide sufficient deep-layer shear for continued

organization of the bow as it moves quickly eastward Friday morning

across the remainder of north FL/south GA, and eventually off the

Atlantic Coast. Severe/damaging winds will likely be the main

concern with this MCS, although an embedded tornado or two also

appears possible. Have included a Slight Risk where damaging winds

appear most likely with the morning convection. However, a faster

progression than currently forecast may require further adjustments

to the corridor of greatest severe threat.



In the wake of this morning activity, additional convective

development and evolution across the Southeast remains unclear.

Robust thunderstorms could regenerate across parts of north FL on

the outflow of the morning MCS, with both a hail and wind threat

given a favorable environment forecast. Severe probabilities have

been expanded southward some across the FL Peninsula to account for

this plausible scenario. Other isolated strong to severe convection

may develop along or just ahead of the south-southeastward moving

cold front Thursday afternoon. This seems more likely to the north

of the morning MCS across parts of the Carolinas, and perhaps

north/central GA. Occasional damaging wind gusts and hail should be

the main threats if this thunderstorms develop in this somewhat

separate regime.



...West/South-Central Texas...

A cold front should decelerate as it moves southward across TX on

Friday. Modest easterly low-level flow will impinge on the higher

terrain of northern Mexico. At this point, it appears that

large-scale ascent will remain nebulous, with a belt of modestly

enhanced westerly mid-level flow persisting. A strong thunderstorm

or two may attempt to develop either along the cold front, or across

northern Mexico in the low-level upslope flow regime. Regardless,

the threat for severe convection across west/south-central TX still

appears too uncertain/conditional for low severe probabilities at

this time.



...Upper Midwest...

A shortwave trough will dig southeastward across the Upper Midwest

Friday. Limited low-level moisture and weak instability should be in

place across this region. But, strong/gusty winds may still occur

with low-topped convection that may develop and spread quickly

southeastward as low-level lapse rates steepen with daytime heating.

The potential for severe winds currently appears too limited to

include any probabilities.



..Gleason.. 05/09/2024



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