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ACUS01 KWNS 300534

SWODY1

SPC AC 300532



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1232 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024



Valid 301200Z - 311200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

THE OHIO VALLEY...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio

Valley this afternoon/evening. Hail is the primary risk.



...Ohio Valley...



Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a short-wave trough over

IA. This feature is forecast to advance to near the IL/IN border by

12z, before progressing across the central Appalachians/middle

Atlantic by early evening. West-southwesterly LLJ will be noted

across the OH Valley early in the period, but this feature will

translate downstream quickly in response to the aforementioned short

wave. In its wake, weak height rises should occur across the OH

Valley during peak heating.



Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing across the Midwest

from eastern IA into southern WI/northern IL. This activity is

driven in large part by warm advection along the nose of the LLJ. As

the LLJ shifts downstream this morning, greatest concentration of

convection will spread across IN/OH. This early-day activity will

evolve within an air mass not particularly bouyant, but within steep

midlevel lapse rates. Of more concern will be the potential for

afternoon convection, albeit more isolated in nature, that evolves

due to strong boundary-layer heating. Short-range guidance suggests

the strongest heating will occur ahead of a front, primarily south

of I70, across IN/OH into portions of WV. While forcing will be weak

after the passage of the short wave, forecast soundings suggest

convective temperatures will be breached within a moistening air

mass that could yield SBCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Any storms that

evolve within this air mass will do so within a strongly sheared

environment. The potential for a few supercells exists, and hail

would be a concern given the steep lapse rates. Lack of greater

forcing favors isolated storm coverage.



..Darrow/Bentley.. 03/30/2024



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