####018001767####
ACUS48 KWNS 090850

SWOD48

SPC AC 090848



Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0348 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024



Valid 121200Z - 171200Z



...DISCUSSION...

A positively tilted upper trough should progress eastward across the

southern/central Plains on Day 4/Sunday. Low-level moisture will

attempt to advance northward across TX in response, but it may be

limited by generally elevated convection to the north of a warm

front. Still, some severe risk may exist across parts of TX, if

thunderstorms can form in the warm sector. This potential still

appears a bit too uncertain to include a 15% severe area for Sunday

at this time.



Medium-range guidance remains in reasonably good agreement that the

upper trough will continue advancing eastward over the lower MS

Valley and Southeast early next week. Severe potential on Day

5/Monday will probably tend to focus over parts of central/east TX

into LA, where the best instability and shear are currently

forecast. However, there are potentially complicating factors, such

as antecedent precipitation and uncertainty regarding the northward

extent of the warm sector. This limits confidence to some extent in

where the greatest severe threat will exist for Monday.



For Day 6/Tuesday, the rich low-level moisture and related warm

sector may tend to be confined fairly near/along the central Gulf

Coast, with the upper trough moving over the Deep South. Too much

uncertainty currently exists to include a 15% severe area for

Tuesday across this region. Predictability of the upper-air pattern

and severe potential across the CONUS becomes even more limited by

Day 7/Wednesday and Day 8/Thursday.



..Gleason.. 05/09/2024