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ACUS01 KWNS 301956

SWODY1

SPC AC 301955



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0255 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024



Valid 302000Z - 311200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF

EASTERN OHIO AND VICINITY...



...SUMMARY...

Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter), isolated damaging gusts,

and an isolated/brief tornado will be possible later this

afternoon/evening across eastern Ohio into northwest West Virginia.



Little change was required to the ongoing outlook.



A focused area of hail potential will develop over eastern OH and

vicinity later this afternoon near a warm front. While moisture is a

bit meager, very cold temperatures aloft/steep lapse rates and ample

deep-layer shear will support a few cells capable of large hail.



..Jewell.. 03/30/2024



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024/



...Synopsis...

A closed midlevel low will move slowly inland over CA, with cool

midlevel temperatures/weak buoyancy supporting the potential for

isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period.  Farther east,

low-level moisture will continue to increase across the southern

Plains into the mid MS Valley as a modifying Gulf air mass spreads

northward to the east of weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM/CO.

 The moistening will occur beneath a relatively warm elevated mixed

layer, so the majority of the warm sector will likely remain capped

through Sunday morning.  The exception will be the northeast edge of

the warm sector toward OH later this afternoon/evening.



...Eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening...

In the wake of morning convection/clouds, surface temperatures will

warm to near 70 F from west-to-east and boundary-layer dewpoints

near 50 F will spread quickly eastward into OH through mid-late

afternoon.  Additional thunderstorm development will be possible

after about 21z along the northeast edge of the destabilizing

surface warm sector, immediately in advance of a weak surface

cyclone moving eastward from northern IN into OH.  Forecast wind

profiles show long hodographs with some low-level hodograph

curvature, which conditionally favors supercells.  Though the

specific number and duration of any supercells is still in question,

there appears to be enough of a conditional severe threat to justify

the addition of a SLGT risk area for parts of eastern OH and

vicinity later this afternoon/evening.  Large hail of 1-1.75" in

diameter will be the main threat, though isolated wind damage and an

isolated tornado will also be possible.



$$