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ACUS01 KWNS 310550

SWODY1

SPC AC 310548



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1248 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024



Valid 311200Z - 011200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN

MISSOURI INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected along a corridor from northern

Missouri into the Ohio Valley today. Some of this activity has the

potential to produce large hail and perhaps a few damaging gusts.



...Northern MO into the Ohio Valley...



Large-scale upper pattern will not change appreciably during the

day1 period. Ridging will dominate much of the eastern US as

troughing holds across the southwestern parts of the country. This

flow regime will, however, allow a notable synoptic front to advance

a bit north, from near the OH River to around I70 by the end of the

period. PW has gradually risen across the warm sector with one-inch

values fairly common along/just south of the boundary. Latest

surface data suggests the leading edge of 60F dew points are

advancing north across OK and will soon spread into southeast KS/

southwest MO. Deep southwesterly flow will permit additional

boundary-layer moistening across MO into the lower OH Valley through

the period.



With weak midlevel height rises expected, convective initiation will

likely be significantly influenced by low-level warm advection along

the nose of the LLJ. This may result in episodic bouts of robust

convection along/near the frontal zone. Early this morning,

scattered thunderstorms continue from southern IN/northern KY into

southern WV. This activity should spread southeast toward the

southern middle Atlantic later today. Renewed convection is expected

late this morning/early this afternoon across northern MO near the

front, where warm advection will be focused. This activity should

then spread/develop downstream into IL/IN. Forecast soundings

suggest any convection north of the boundary will be elevated and

should pose mostly a hail threat as steep lapse rates will be

maintained along this corridor. Wind profiles suggest supercells are

possible, though some clustering is likely, especially along the

cool side of the boundary. The greatest risk for damaging winds will

be noted with storms that evolve near/south of the wind shift.



..Darrow/Bentley.. 03/31/2024



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