####018001605####
ACUS48 KWNS 310843

SWOD48

SPC AC 310841



Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0341 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024



Valid 031200Z - 081200Z



...DISCUSSION...

...Wednesday/Day 4...

An upper-level low is forecast to move eastward into the

northeastern U.S. on Wednesday, as a cold front advances eastward

from the Eastern Seaboard into the western Atlantic. Thunderstorms

are expected to develop near the front early in the day, and then

move offshore during the afternoon.  Some of these could be

associated with an isolated and marginal severe threat. Additional

storms, associated with a severe threat, could develop over parts of

the Florida Peninsula in the afternoon. On Wednesday, predictability

appears to be too low to add a severe threat area.



...Thursday/Day 5 to Sunday/Day 8...

An area of surface high pressure is forecast to move from the

central U.S. on Thursday to the Eastern Seaboard on Sunday. Dry and

cool air, associated with the high pressure system, will likely keep

the potential low for thunderstorm development from Thursday to

Saturday. On Sunday, low-level moisture return in the wake of the

high is forecast to take place across the Great Plains, as an

upper-level trough moves through the central U.S. Strong

thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat, would be possible

ahead of the trough during the afternoon and evening across parts of

the central U.S. However, the scenario put forward by some of the

models is highly uncertain at this extended range.



..Broyles.. 03/31/2024