####018003299#### ACUS01 KWNS 101944 SWODY1 SPC AC 101943 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75 inches remain possible this afternoon/evening across southern North Carolina and northeast South Carolina. ...Discussion... Aside from some adjustments to the thunder lines to account for current/evolving convection, no appreciable changes to the outlook appear to be required at this time. ..Goss.. 05/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ ...Carolinas this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over the OH Valley will move southeastward to the Carolinas by this evening with an accompanying surface cold front. Surface heating in the wake of debris cloudiness with the weakening MCS to the south and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to a corridor of moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) ahead of the front. Thunderstorm development is expected by early-mid afternoon along and ahead of the cold front and a diffuse pre-frontal trough across northern SC/southern NC, and storms will subsequently spread southeastward through this evening. The moderate buoyancy, steepening low-level lapse rates, and largely straight hodographs with ~50 kt midlevel flow will favor damaging winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter as the main threats with a mix of supercells and line segments. ...Northeast Gulf coast and FL through this evening... The initial MCS with damaging winds has now weakened and moved off the Atlantic coast, with a band of elevated convection persisting to the west in a zone of warm advection atop the trailing cold pool. There will be a low-end hail threat with the elevated storms from the FL Panhandle into north FL today, prior to the storms weakening later this afternoon. Additional storm development along the outflow boundary across the FL peninsula is somewhat uncertain, given the observed tendency for low-level flow to veer to west-northwesterly across central FL which suggests only weak/shallow ascent along the boundary. Overall, any lingering severe threat should remain marginal through the afternoon. ...Upper MS Valley... A midlevel trough over northern MN will continue to dig southeastward over the upper MS Valley through this evening. Despite limited low-level moisture, surface heating/steepening low-level lapse rates and ascent preceding the midlevel trough will support a band of low-topped convection from mid afternoon through late evening. The stronger storms will be capable of producing isolated wind damage ...Edwards Plateau in TX today... Though an isolated/elevated storm could occur today well to the north of the surface cold front, buoyancy appears fairly limited where storm formation is more probable. As such, severe storms appear unlikely (and any storm splits off the high terrain in Mexico are unlikely to remain severe after crossing the international border). $$