####018002075#### ACUS01 KWNS 311955 SWODY1 SPC AC 311953 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM NORTHERN MO TO CENTRAL IL/IN... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce large hail later this afternoon into tonight from northern Missouri to central Illinois/Indiana. Isolated large hail and/or wind damage may also occur this afternoon from southern West Virginia into south central Virginia. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the previous forecast. ..Wendt.. 03/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024/ ...MO/IL to VA through tonight... A largely east-west oriented baroclinic zone will drift slowly northward as a warm front across MO/IL, well east of lee cyclogenesis across eastern CO. The potential for surface-based storms along the warm front appears questionable, given lingering capping with a relatively warm elevated mixed layer atop the moistening boundary layer. Much of the convection through the period will likely be elevated atop the frontal surface and tied to low-level warm advection. There will be sufficient cloud-layer shear for supercells capable of producing large hail, but confidence in specific storm development this afternoon (see MD #315 for additional information) versus tonight is relatively low. Thus, will maintain the conditional outlook area with few changes. Farther east, some convection is ongoing in a loose cluster across southern WV in association with weak low-level warm advection. Some expansion of the weakly unstable warm sector is expected into VA through the afternoon, and a couple of storms could persist along this corridor to near the VA/NC by mid-late afternoon. There will be a conditional threat for a somewhat high-based supercell or two with an accompanying threat for isolated large hail and/or damaging outflow gusts. $$