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ACUS03 KWNS 010721

SWODY3

SPC AC 010720



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0220 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024



Valid 031200Z - 041200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

THE MID-ATLANTIC...CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...



...SUMMARY...

Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday across

parts of the Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas and Florida Peninsula.



...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas...

An upper-level low is forecast to move eastward into the Ohio Valley

on Wednesday, as a mid-level jet translates eastward toward the

Atlantic Seaboard. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to

advance quickly eastward across the Atlantic Seaboard during the

morning and afternoon. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are

forecast to be in the mid 60s F, which will contribute to weak

destabilization during the day. As surface temperatures warm ahead

of the boundary, scattered thunderstorm development is expected

during the late morning and early afternoon. The greatest convective

coverage should be the Mid-Atlantic, where the exit region of the

mid-level jet will likely be associated with a pocket of strong

large-scale ascent. This, combined with strong deep-layer shear,

could be enough for an isolated wind-damage threat, as low-level

lapse rates steepen during the day. Any severe threat is expected to

diminish from west to east as the cold front moves into the coastal

areas during the afternoon.



...Florida Peninsula...

A 90 to 110 knot mid-level jet is forecast to move to the southern

Atlantic Seaboard by midday, as a cold front advances southward

across the Florida Peninsula. Thunderstorm development will be

likely near and ahead of the front across much of the central

Florida Peninsula during the afternoon. A moist airmass will be in

place ahead of the front across central Florida, where surface

dewpoints are forecast to be in the upper 60s and lower 70S F. This

should aid weak destabilization. In addition, forecast soundings

ahead of the front around 21Z have 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, with

0-3 km lapse rates near 6.5 C/km. This could support an isolated

wind-damage threat with short multicell line segments that develop

ahead of the front. Hail could also occur with the stronger cells.



..Broyles.. 04/01/2024



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