####018002027####
ACUS48 KWNS 020858

SWOD48

SPC AC 020856



Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0356 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024



Valid 051200Z - 101200Z



...DISCUSSION...

...Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5...

An upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly eastward from the

West Coast on Friday into the Desert Southwest on Saturday. Moisture

return is forecast take place ahead of the trough across the

southern and central Plains, with surface dewpoints reaching the 50s

and possibly low 60s F, from north Texas into south-central Kansas.

As large-scale ascent comes out into the southern and central Plains

during the evening, scattered strong to severe thunderstorm

development will be possible. Large hail and wind damage are

expected to be the primary threats. There is still considerable

uncertainty on Saturday, mainly due to the lack of low-level

moisture and instability. 



...Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8...

The upper-level low over the Desert Southwest is forecast to move

into the north-central U.S. on Sunday, as a cold front advances

eastward into the Ark-La-Tex. Isolated to scattered strong

thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front.

However, uncertainty is still considerable concerning the

timing/placement of the front, and magnitude of instability.



On Monday, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place across parts

of the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. Strong

thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon and

evening. However, a lack of large-scale ascent suggests any severe

threat that develops will remain unfocused. The potential for a more

widespread severe threat may increase across the southern and

central Plains on Tuesday, as an upper-level low moves across the

Desert Southwest. As forecast spatial uncertainty decreases for

Monday into Tuesday, the addition of a 15 percent contour in later

outlooks may considered.



..Broyles.. 04/02/2024