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ACUS01 KWNS 021233

SWODY1

SPC AC 021232



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0732 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024



Valid 021300Z - 031200Z



...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF

NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...AND CENTRAL AND

SOUTHERN OHIO...



...SUMMARY...

A severe weather outbreak is possible today over the Ohio Valley

with the broader severe weather risk including parts of the

Southeast.  Strong and potentially long-track tornadoes are possible

from Indiana and Ohio southward into the Mid South.  A threat for

strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of

Alabama and Georgia.



...Synopsis...

A complex and strongly dynamic spring storm system will potentially

result in a large area of severe-weather risk from the southern

Great Lakes/OH Valley southward into portions of the Deep South,

including AL/GA and the western Carolinas late tonight.  



A potent trough over the Upper Midwest this morning will evolve into

a very strong mid-level low over the southwest Great Lakes by

Wednesday morning.  An intense mid-level speed max over northern

Mexico/TX, in association with the southern portion of the

larger-scale central U.S. trough, will rapidly move east-northeast

during the period and intensify to 125-kt at 500 mb over the

southern Appalachians by daybreak Wednesday.  Intense 12-hr midlevel

height falls are forecast across much of the Great Lakes, OH/TN

Valley, and the northern Gulf States, where values in excess of 200m

are expected during the latter half of the period.  The synoptic

front this morning is draped across the OH Valley and will likely

advance north due to the digging trough.  



...OH Valley...

Water-vapor imagery loop overnight showed a southern-stream

short-wave trough associated with this morning's severe thunderstorm

activity straddling the OH River in central KY and southern IN. 

This early-day thunderstorm complex will probably pose a risk for

wind damage and perhaps a couple of tornadoes before it moves into

the central Appalachians towards midday (see MCD #341 for short-term

details).  In its wake, a trailing outflow boundary/effective warm

frontal zone will likely advance northward into IN/OH later today

with lower to mid 60s progged to near I-70.  Models continue to show

an appreciable window of opportunity in which cloud breaks/heating

and increasing low-level moisture contribute to moderate

destabilization during the afternoon.  Have adjusted the western

envelope of severe probabilities farther west across IN to account

for greater destabilization than earlier forecast, but otherwise

have left the outlook unchanged across the OH Valley.  Scattered

thunderstorms will likely develop by early to mid afternoon with

discrete supercells evolving from the more intense updrafts. 

Tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging gusts are expected

with the supercells that mature across the warm sector.  Enlarged

and elongated hodographs imply fast storm motions and the

possibility for several cyclic tornadic supercells, some of which

may yield strong and long-lived tornadoes.  



Farther east, strong to severe storms may continue across the

central Appalachians and perhaps move east into the Mid-Atlantic

states.  Hail/wind appear to be the primary hazards with this

activity.



...Southeast this evening/tonight...

Farther south and initially in the TN/MS/northern AL vicinity,

severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon as the

leading edge of stronger large-scale ascent impinges on the region. 

A moisture-rich airmass and wind profile favoring supercells, will

favor a risk for all severe hazards with the stronger thunderstorms.

Although it remains unclear with regard to daytime to evening storm

evolution across MS/AL/TN, the approach of the 500-mb speed max and

intense shear through a deep layer atop a moist/unstable boundary

layer, suggest a bimodal severe threat will probably evolve this

evening into the overnight.  Model guidance indicates messy but

organized storm modes within a larger area of convection will

probably develop.  Forecast soundings show 300-500 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH

from central/eastern AL into GA during the evening and overnight. 

The risk for tornadoes, including a few strong tornadoes, will be

possible with this activity eventually reaching the Carolinas and

the eastern FL Panhandle late.



..Smith/Leitman.. 04/02/2024



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