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ACUS01 KWNS 022003

SWODY1

SPC AC 022001



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0301 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024



Valid 022000Z - 031200Z



...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM

SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY...



...SUMMARY...

A local severe weather outbreak remains possible through this

evening primarily across the Mid-Ohio Valley area, with the broader

severe weather risk extending east to the upper Ohio Valley, and

south to the Gulf Coast.  Strong tornadoes remain most likely from

southern Indiana to central Ohio and southward into the Mid South. 

A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight

across parts of Alabama and Georgia.



...Discussion...

Previous forecast reasoning largely remains on track, though

adjustments to the outlook areas -- including trimming the MDT risk

on the eastern fringe -- have been implemented.



Multiple rounds of prior convection have hindered warm-sector

recovery into the moderate-risk area, but clearing evident in

visible imagery from western Kentucky to central Ohio has occurred

ahead of the front.  This corridor remains the focus for significant

severe weather, including potential for strong tornadoes.



Elsewhere, earlier reasoning remains valid, with a broad area of

severe weather potential still evident from the Ohio Valley to the

Gulf Coast.



..Goss.. 04/02/2024



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/



...OH/TN Valley area through this evening...

Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across

WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of

storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY.  The lead

storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though

this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it

encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border. 

The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone,

where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of

65-70 F.  A couple of the storms will likely become persistent

supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be

strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs

with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2.



Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing

TN-KY-WV convection.  The storms approaching middle TN and southern

KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely

interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of

OH (especially eastern OH).  The corridor of richer low-level

moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of

the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward

southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early

afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon.  Strong deep-layer

shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel

trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the

potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards,

including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level

warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection.  As

previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe

threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the

south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and

expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the

tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY.



...Eastern AL/western GA overnight...

In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over

the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection

will increase tonight across AL/GA.  A surge of upper 60s

boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both

appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band

ahead of the synoptic cold front.  An isolated strong tornado or two

will be possible.



$$