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ACUS01 KWNS 030118

SWODY1

SPC AC 030116



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0816 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024



Valid 030100Z - 031200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL

PART OF FAR EASTERN OH...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF TN VALLEY AND

SOUTHEAST STATES...



...SUMMARY...

Damaging wind gusts and tornadoes remain possible from the Ohio

Valley to the Southeast tonight, particularly over a small part of

far eastern Ohio and across portions of Tennessee Valley and

Southeast States.



...01Z Update...

Multiple bands of strong to severe thunderstorms continue ahead of

an expansive cold front stretching from the IN/OH border

southwestward through central KY, western TN, northwest MS, and

central LA. Strong wind profiles will continue to support storm

organization and the potential for damaging wind gusts and/or

tornadoes with any discrete storms or embedded within any of the

numerous line segments along and/or ahead of the front.



...Middle/Upper OH Valley...

The airmass has begun to cool and stabilize ahead of the cold front

moving across the region, as evidenced by the 00Z ILN and PIT

soundings. Even so, strong ascent is spreading across the region and

thunderstorms are expected to persist along and ahead of the front

this evening. Many of the storms in this region have trended towards

a more cell-in-line/embedded supercell structure as the front

approaches. This trend will likely continue throughout the evening

and tonight. Wind fields remain very strong, as evidenced by the

recent RLX VAD profile which sampled 0-1 km bulk shear of 50 kt and

0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt. These kinematics will likely still

support a threat for damaging gusts and embedded tornadoes

throughout the evening and tonight. 



...TN Valley into the Southeast...

Thermodynamic conditions in this region are a bit more favorable

than those farther north, supported by mid 60s dewpoints reaching

into southern middle TN. Even so, poor lapse rates still limit the

overall buoyancy, with recent mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE below

1500 J/kg across the region. General expectation is for storm

coverage to increase this evening, particularly across AL and GA.

Wind profiles remain supportive of organized storms, with damaging

gusts and tornadoes possible throughout the evening and tonight.



..Mosier.. 04/03/2024



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